A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
